| Total return | (Final value − Initial value) ÷ Initial value |
| Per year | Annualised (CAGR): (Final value ÷ Initial value)^(1 ÷ Years) − 1 |
| Real | Nominal return minus inflation, to be precise: (1 + nominal) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1 |
| Swiss shares | 6.8 % per year since 1900, 4.6 % in real terms (Pictet, February 2026) |
| Swiss bonds | 3.9 % per year since 1900, in real terms 1.8 % |
| Attention | No Swiss portfolio has achieved 10 % per annum over 20 years; globally, this has only been achieved in exceptional decades |
Table of contents
Calculating return: the formula
The total return is the straightforward bit: what you end up with, minus what you put in, divided by your initial investment.
Return = (Final value − Initial value) ÷ Initial value × 100
Example: CHF 10,000 invested, now worth CHF 15,000. (15,000 − 10,000) ÷ 10,000 = 0.5, or 50 %. This figure tells you how much you’ve earned. It doesn’t tell you how good the investment was. The time period is too short for that.
Annualised return: why 50 % over 5 years is not the same as 10 % per year
50 % divided by five over five years gives 10 %. That is how most people calculate it, and that is why it is wrong. Because in the second year, it is no longer just the initial investment that is working, but also the profit from the first year. The annualised rate of return, known in English as CAGR, takes this into account:
Annual return = (Final value ÷ Initial value)^(1 ÷ Number of years) − 1
In the example: (15,000 ÷ 10,000)^(1 ÷ 5) − 1 = 8.4 %. Not 10. The difference grows over time: 100 % in ten years is not 10 % per year, but 7.2 %. 300 % in twenty years is 7.2 %, not 15.
The annualised return is the only figure you can use to compare two investments that have been running for different lengths of time. And it is the figure that funds, ETFs and pension funds report. If someone mentions a «50 % return», ask them to specify the time period.