Bitcoin vs. shares

Bitcoin vs. stock ETFs – which is the better investment?

Invested £10,000 in Bitcoin 10 years ago? By 2025, that would be over £12 million.¹

The same amount in the MSCI World? £27,500.²

Sounds like a clear winner, right? The reality is more complicated. This comparison only tells half the story – and glosses over the brutal crashes that Bitcoin investors have had to endure.

Since 2019, I have been running a Bitcoin savings plan alongside my ETF investments in shares. In this article, I compare both asset classes without sugar-coating anything: performance, risks, crash scenarios – and show you how to combine both worlds intelligently.

Table of contents

Bitcoin vs. shares: the ranking over the last 10 years

When we compare the performance of the most important asset classes over the last 10 years, there is a clear winner:

The top 6 asset classes (2015–2025)

The facts are clear: Bitcoin has been the best asset class globally in 9 of the last 10 years – with a 10-fold higher return than the second-placed Nasdaq 100.³

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⚠️ Important for Swiss investors: MSCI World and Bitcoin are measured in USD. The strong Swiss franc has reduced returns for CH investors. The SPI shows the real CHF return without currency risk.⁴

bitcoin vs. MSCI World historical comparison

ETFs: The solid alternative

While Bitcoin dominates the headlines, equity ETFs have been delivering reliable returns for decades:

MSCI World (2015–2025):

  • Return: 10.61% per annum (USD) ²
  • Volatility: Around 15% (moderate)
  • Largest decline in the period: -25% during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020

 

SPI Swiss Performance Index:

  • Return: 7.81% per annum in CHF⁴
  • Stability: Less volatility than international indices
  • Largest decline: -15% in 2022

The inconvenient truth

Bitcoin could have made you a millionaire – but only if you got in at the right time. Anyone who bought at the peak of the Bitcoin bubble in 2017 sat on a loss of -80% for two years. Anyone who got in at the new all-time high at the end of 2021 experienced a crash of -73% in 2022.

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The downside: when Bitcoin crashes

Before you euphorically invest all your money in Bitcoin, let's take a look at the reality:

The most severe Bitcoin crashes

What does that mean specifically?

In the worst-case scenario (2018), CHF 100,000 was reduced to just CHF 17,000. Many investors sold in panic at the low point and incurred massive losses. Those who persevered were rewarded – but that requires nerves of steel and staying power.

How long do you have to hold out?

The data shows a fascinating pattern: the longer you hold your investment, the safer it becomes. But Bitcoin and stocks differ dramatically in the speed at which the risk of loss has historically declined.

The most important findings from the data:

Probability of loss for Bitcoin after holding period vs. shares

After just one year, the risk of loss is similar for both investments – around one in four investors makes a loss. But then the paths diverge: Bitcoin investors who hold on for at least four years have historically seen no more risk of loss. With equity ETFs, it takes almost four times as long, at around 15 years.⁷

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What does that mean in concrete terms? Anyone who bought Bitcoin in 2015 and held it until 2019 was guaranteed to be in the black – regardless of when exactly they got in. With shares, you would have to hold out from 2010 to 2025 for the same certainty.

⚠️ Attention: This data is based on past performance (Bitcoin since 2009, shares over 100 years). There is no guarantee that the future will develop in the same way! Bitcoin is still young – and the data will change over time.

Can you live with the volatility?

Bitcoin: Daily fluctuations of ±10-20% are completely normal. Crashes of -30% within a few days occur several times per cycle.

MSCI World: Significantly calmer with around 15% annual volatility. In the worst case, -30% over 6-12 months, recovery usually within 1-2 years.

My personal experience: In the crash of 2022, I saw my Bitcoin portfolio fall by 65%. I persevered – in 2025, I am back in the black. But it takes a lot of nerve. You have to be honest with yourself: can you handle that?

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The verdict: Who wins the comparison?

After all the figures, the question is: Bitcoin or shares – which is better?

The answer: both. And neither.

Bitcoin impresses with:

✅ Highest long-term returns of all asset classes (historically)
✅ Faster recovery: No more losses after 4 years (vs. 15 years for shares)
✅ Diversification: Often performs differently than stock markets (but increasingly similarly)
✅ Limited supply: only 21 million bitcoins – genuine protection against inflation (theoretically)

Equity ETFs offer compelling advantages:

✅ Stability: Significantly lower fluctuations than Bitcoin
✅ Proven: Over 100 years of historical data, reliable 7-10% returns
✅ Psychologically easier: less stress, fewer panic sales
✅ Real economy: Investment in real companies with turnover and profits
✅ Dividends: Passive income with distributing ETFs

The truth

It's not an either/or situation. Bitcoin and ETFs have different strengths. Bitcoin is a return booster for risk-tolerant investors (5-20% of the portfolio). ETFs are the foundation for every investor (80-95% of the portfolio).

The solution? A combination of both: The core-satellite strategy.

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The solution: core-satellite strategy

Instead of having to choose between Bitcoin and shares, you can combine both intelligently:

How it works

  • Core (80-95%): ETFs as a stable foundation (MSCI World, SPI, etc.)
  • Satellite (5-20%): Bitcoin as a return booster

 

The big advantage: Even if Bitcoin crashes -80%, your total portfolio will only lose -8 to -16%. This is psychologically much easier to bear than a pure Bitcoin portfolio.

Portfolio scenarios in comparison

Let's take a look at how different mixes would have developed historically (2015–2025):⁸

⚠️ Important: 10% Bitcoin is already an aggressive allocation. For more conservative investors, 5% (or less) is a better starting point. Test your risk tolerance honestly: Can you sleep peacefully at night if your Bitcoin holdings lose -70%?

💡 Notice: These figures are based on historical data and are heavily dependent on the entry date. If you had entered in 2017 or 2021, the results would have been significantly worse!

My personal strategy

I hold about 80% of my portfolio in ETFs and 20% in satellites (Bitcoin, gold and, from the old days, a few individual shares).

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In concrete terms, this could look like this:

  • £1,500 per month → ETF savings plans (for pillar 3a and free assets)
  • £200 per month → Bitcoin savings plan via Relai
  • Additionally: Small gold position as crisis protection (more on this: Bitcoin vs. Gold Comparison)
  • The savings plan runs automatically – no stress, no constant checking of charts.
  • The cost average effect perfectly smooths out Bitcoin fluctuations

Would you like to learn more about the best ETF providers for Switzerland? Take a look at my Online broker comparison Switzerland an.

How to implement the strategy in practice

Now you know the theory. But how do you actually get started?

Implementation in two steps:

  1. Set up an ETF savings plan (your core)

 

  1. Set up a Bitcoin savings plan (your satellite)
  • Relai app: Automatic Bitcoin savings plan starting at £50
  • Non-custodial, made in Switzerland
  • Regulated by VQF (self-regulatory organisation under FINMA supervision)
  • Detailed test and instructions: Relai Bitcoin App Review
Relai referral code Relai code Relai voucher fee voucher Relai referral code Relai promotion code

The golden rule: persevere

The biggest mistake? Selling in a panic during a crash. That's exactly when you should be thinking long term. Let your savings plan run automatically, don't check the charts every day, and review your portfolio once a year – remember to rebalance.

Our financial tips for 2026

"Intelligent people learn from the mistakes of others".

We have compiled our top selection for you from all our tests and experience reports:

Online broker comparison trading platforms comparison Swiss broker comparison test
Swiss bank account recommendation test experience report account
swiizerfranke ebook investment guide switzerland pdf download
Pillar 3a Comparison Recommendation Experience Report
Crypto Broker Switzerland Comparison Buy Bitcoin
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Conclusion: What makes sense for whom?

After all the figures, tables and scenarios, the final question is: which strategy is right for you?

ETFs are only right for you if You are new to investing and cannot cope with fluctuations of -50%. You value stability over maximum returns and want to sleep peacefully at night. That's perfectly fine – it's better to start conservatively than not to start at all.

Core-satellite (ETFs + Bitcoin) is right for you if You already have or are building an ETF portfolio and are thinking long term (at least +10 years). You can psychologically withstand fluctuations and are willing to invest 5-10% of your portfolio in Bitcoin. You are looking for excess returns without putting all your eggs in one basket.

My final conclusion

Bitcoin is neither a saviour nor the devil's work. It is a highly volatile asset class with enormous potential returns – and equally enormous risks.

The core-satellite strategy combines the best of both worlds: equity ETFs as a foundation for stability and peace of mind, Bitcoin as a return booster for additional opportunities. For me personally, the 80/20 split is the sweet spot. You have to find your own balance – but one thing is certain: without ETFs in your portfolio, you're doing something wrong.

Whether you opt for 100% ETFs or the core-satellite strategy, the first step is to get started. Setting up an ETF savings plan takes 20 minutes. One Bitcoin savings plan with Relai set up as well.

What's keeping you?

Relai referral code Relai code Relai voucher fee voucher Relai referral code Relai promotion code

Transparency notice

Transparency: This article was created in paid collaboration with Relai. I have been using Relai myself for years for my Bitcoin savings plan and only recommend products and services that I am personally convinced of. My analyses, comparisons and opinions remain completely independent of this.

Important note: This is not investment advice. Only invest money that you are prepared to lose. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk and suitable for long-term investors with strong nerves.

Frequently asked questions

No. Bitcoin is significantly more volatile, with potential crashes of -80%, while equity ETFs fall by a maximum of -30 to -50% (historically). However, Bitcoin recovers more quickly: historically, after four years, no further losses were possible, whereas with equities it took around 15 years.⁷

A maximum of 5-20% of your total portfolio, depending on your risk tolerance. My assessment (not investment advice): 10% for balanced investors, 5% for conservative investors, up to 20% for very risk-tolerant investors.

Yes, absolutely! A savings plan of £200 per month is ideal for the cost averaging effect. With Relai, you can even start with as little as £50 per month. Small amounts add up over the years.

I recommend a hardware wallet for Bitcoin values of CHF 5,000 or more. For smaller amounts, the Relai app is sufficient. I myself transfer funds from Relai to my hardware wallet on a quarterly basis – this way, I combine convenience with security.

That's exactly what the core-satellite strategy is for. With 90% in ETFs, even if you lose your entire Bitcoin investment, you'll only be 10% in the red. So remember: never invest more than 20% of your portfolio in Bitcoin!

Sources and references

¹ Bitcoin Historical Data: Portfoliomix.de, CoinTelegraph, Bankrate.com (Bitcoin performance 2015–2025)
² MSCI World Performance: MSCI Inc., Investingintheweb.com, Yahoo Finance (10-year performance in USD and CHF)
³ Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Performance: Bloomberg, Charlie Bilello via Messari Research, Börse Online
⁴ SPI Swiss Performance Index: SIX Swiss Exchange, Seat11a.com, PPCmetrics, Pictet Wealth Management
⁵ Gold performance: World Gold Council, Gold.de, Bitpanda Blog
⁶ Bitcoin Crash History: Bankrate.com, Wikipedia (Cryptocurrency Bubble), Webopedia, Yahoo Finance
⁷ Probability of loss by holding period: LazyPortfolioETF Bitcoin Rolling Returns (2009-2025), Curvo.eu MSCI World Historical Performance, Dimensional S&P 500 Long-term Rolling Returns. Bitcoin shows a 26% loss risk at 1 year, 14% at 3 years, 0% from 4 years. MSCI World: 30% at 1 year, 15% at 3 years, 0% from 15 years.
⁸ Portfolio scenarios: Own calculations based on historical data from MSCI, Bitcoin price data, Yahoo Finance

Disclaimer: All information is provided without guarantee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This article does not constitute investment advice. Please consult an independent financial advisor if necessary.

Financial author Eric Marschall certified investment advisor (IAF) independent financial expert Switzerland - certified financial expert switzerland
About the author

Eric is the founder of Schwiizerfranke.com and certified IAF wealth advisor. Since 2019, he has been helping Swiss citizens to organise their finances comprehensibly, independently and efficiently.

More about Eric & Schwiizerfranke

📌 Note: This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute personalised investment advice.

2 responses

  1. Hello, Eric,

    A lovely article with useful recommendations!

    The only criticism: the average annual return of 127% is somewhat misleading.

    As you can see from your chart «Bitcoin vs. MSCI World», Bitcoin rose more rapidly at first and has been slowing down over the years.
    (See also «Bitcoin Power Law».)

    A new entrant today therefore earns significantly less than an average of 127% per year. And this figure will continue to decline with each passing year.

    Regards, Walter

    Reply

    1. Thanks for adding that, Walter. You're right, the future can never be deduced from the past – I hope that came across in the article.
      (The most recent days on the crypto market demonstrate this very well).

      Reply
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