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Asymmetric risk, taking risks, learning to bet, betting correctly, speculating

Asymmetric risks in life and on the stock market: why young people should take risks

"No return without risk"is a recurring theme. Yet the human survival instinct makes us rather anxious and we would prefer to avoid risks. But if you want to be successful and achieve returns, you have to take risks. 

Many risks are not worth it and should be avoided. But there are opportunities that enormous potential for profit with a manageable risk of loss have. Such unequal distributions are called asymmetric risks.

In this article, you will not only find out what asymmetric risks are, but also what they are, Why young people in particular should take more risksthan older people. You will also learn how you can achieve great success with low risk thanks to an understanding of asymmetric risk.

Sounds exciting? Then let's start right away with a definition!

Definition: What are asymmetric risks?

Asymmetric risks occur when the Potential for profit or loss unevenly distributed .

A classic example: If you invest CHF 1,000 in a start-up, the total loss could be CHF 1,000. However, if the start-up is successful, the profit could be in the millions. The risk is clearly limited (CHF 1,000), but the potential is unlimited. The risk/return ratio is therefore asymmetrical.

Asymmetric risk

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Asymmetric risks in life: Young people can risk more

The Youth is the ideal time to take targeted asymmetric risks. Why? Because young people have time - time to recover from setbacks and learn from them.
Amadeus Mozart's quote "He who has nothing to lose must dare everything" points to this fact.

Let's look at some examples of asymmetric risks in real life:

Examples of positive asymmetric risks

  1. Setting up your own business: Instead of pursuing a secure job, you venture into self-employment at a young age. Initially, you will probably only have a low and uncertain income. In the long term, however, your income can rise sharply and quickly make up for and far exceed the initial losses.
  2. Investment in solid shares: Suppose you invest CHF 5,000 in promising shares. In the worst-case scenario, you will lose your CHF 5,000, but if the shares do well, your investment could double several times over the next few decades.
  3. Early investment in Bitcoin: In the early days of Bitcoin, it was still possible to buy coins for a few centimes. Back then, you could get 1,000 bitcoins for 100 francs. This small bet of 100 francs would not have been too bad in the event of a total loss. But if you had held on until 2024, it would have been worth around 60 million francs.

Examples of negative asymmetric risks

  1. High-risk share speculation: Putting all your money into a single, high-risk share would not be a good bet. The risk of total loss is enormous and the prospect of profit is not attractive.
  2. Property purchase without adequate inspection: Lured by advertising, investments in property abroad are tempting. The promise is a "secure 12% return" per year. The risk is enormous (possible total loss due to various factors) and the possibility of being tested abroad is particularly difficult. In addition, a lot of capital has to be invested and the return is not particularly high compared to the risk (comparison with the broad stock market).
  3. Securities lending: With securities lending, you lend the securities in your custody account and receive a small return of a few per cent in return. As securities otherwise never become part of your bank's insolvency estate, but they do with securities lending and a total loss is therefore possible, this is not a smart idea. A few per cent return vs. a possible total loss is not attractive for the private investor who cannot check all the risks of the bank.

Risk, return, asymmetric risks, bets

By the way: You have probably noticed that the term "bet" has been used here several times. Anyone who takes risks is betting (or speculating) on a certain scenario. Betting and speculation are not bad per se, as long as you understand what you are doing and have the risk/return ratio under control.

Learning to bet: choosing the right risks

If you want to learn to speculate and bet, you need to understand risk. Asymmetric opportunities with high profit potential and limited loss are attractive and can be utilised especially at a young age.

At the same time, it is important to avoid unnecessary risks that could jeopardise the entire capital. 

Example: If you've had a successful evening at the casino and earned a lot of money, it makes little sense to bet everything on red again before leaving. It's better not to take any more risks and take your winnings home with you.

The situation is similar for rich or old people: they have a lot to lose and less time to recover losses. Accordingly, they should take fewer risks on the stock market than young people.

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What science says about speculation

Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize for his research on decision-making under uncertainty, taught us a lot about the hurdles and pitfalls of our thinking.

His insight into "loss aversion" is particularly interesting for the topic of asymmetric risks: We fear losses more than we appreciate gains.

Kahneman showed that we often play too safebecause the risk of a loss is more of a deterrent than the chance of an equally large gain is an attraction.

An illustrative example is the choice between a sure win of 50 francs or a 50% chance to win 100 francs - many choose the sure amount even though both options have the same expected value. This example helps us to understand why it is important to take targeted risks, especially when we are young and can make up for certain losses through the time factor.

In addition a Funny quote from the investor Charlie Munger
"Show me where I will die so that I never go to that place". This applies in particular to investments.

Life stages and exemplary, attractive asymmetric risks

0-20 years: Education and first steps

  • Life: Spending time abroad for language and culture, intensive involvement in hobbies that could later lead to careers.
  • Invest: Learning through small, low-risk investments; use of educational programmes and demo accounts.

 

20-40 years: Career and wealth accumulation

  • Life: Founding a start-up or switching to a career with high growth potential, even if this initially seems uncertain.
  • Invest: Investments in equity investments (aggressive) and a smaller admixture of risky investments such as cryptocurrencies.

 

40-60 years: Collection and diversification

  • Life: Reduce career risks, possibly switch to more stable sectors; invest in children's education.
  • Invest: Restructuring of the portfolio towards more stability, but still with a certain proportion of risk investments to take advantage of growth opportunities.

 

60+ years: securing and maintaining

  • Life: Invest in health and quality of life; plan the transition to retirement.
  • Invest: Focus on low-risk investments that generate a steady income (e.g. bonds, dividend shares), but also consideration of inheritance planning and passing on to the next generation.

How to find attractive speculation and asymmetric risks

Identification of opportunities:

  • Conduct intensive research into new, disruptive technologies and industries.
  • Stay informed about geopolitical developments that can influence markets.
  • Use financial and industry networks to recognise trends at an early stage.

 

Note risk management:

  • Diversify your portfolio to spread risks. Never put all your eggs in one basket.
  • When investing in shares, you can set stop-loss orders to limit losses.
  • Review your portfolio regularly and adjust it to market changes.

 

Psychological aspects:

  • Train your risk tolerance step by step; start small and build up.
  • Accept that losses are part of the process.
  • Use tools and techniques for emotional distancing to avoid impulsive behaviour. (Avoid greed and fear).

If you don't dare, you've already lost!

While Mr and Mrs Swiss are known to be over-insured and avoid risks wherever possible, Mr and Mrs Swiss are not. Risks necessary to realise profits.

Some risks are not worth it, while other risks can offer a disproportionately high chance of profit. This uneven distribution is known as asymmetric risk.

The concept of asymmetric risks opens up a world full of opportunities and challengesespecially when it comes to investments and life decisions. The realisation that you can achieve disproportionately higher profits with limited losses is extremely exciting. Young people in particular should be aware of this dynamic and take bold but considered risks.

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"Intelligent people learn from the mistakes of others".

We have compiled our top selection for you from all our tests and experience reports:

Conclusion on asymmetric risks

This article is not an excuse for blind speculation, it is about that, specifically recognise bets with a positive expected value. Both the selection of the right risks and sound risk management play a decisive role here. By understanding and applying asymmetric risks, you can learn how to distinguish between high-risk and low-risk but profitable opportunities.

No matter what stage of life you are at, addressing asymmetric risks allows you to be more aware and potentially more successful in shaping your life path. Whether you are in education, building a career or in retirement, making targeted use of asymmetric opportunities can help you achieve your goals and realise your dreams.

To summarise: Considering and taking asymmetric risks are fundamental components of conscious living and investing. They enable you to think beyond the conventional and explore paths that can lead to great success.

What asymmetric risk are you taking? A career change? A journey? An investment? Share your plans in the comments!

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